Automotive Experiences
Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Issue in Progress

Probabilistic Performance Prediction of a Hydrogen-Converted SI Engine Using a Markov-Chain-Wiebe Framework

Purnami (Unknown)
Nugroho, Willy Satrio (Unknown)
Yuliati, Lilis (Unknown)
Alamsyah, Fikrul Akbar (Unknown)
Wardana, ING (Unknown)
Wahid, Abdul Mudjib Sulaiman (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
14 May 2026

Abstract

This study employs a novel Markov-chain modeling framework to analyze the combustion-performance interaction in a hydrogen-fueled spark-ignition engine. The methodology integrates a Wiebe heat-release model within a Markov-chain state-transition framework, where each discrete engine state defines combustion parameters and probabilistic transitions capture cycle-to-cycle variability. Results demonstrate that engine behavior is dominantly governed by combustion phasing, with spark timing exerting primary control over torque, efficiency, and brake-specific fuel consumption (BSFC). Sensitivity analysis confirms spark timing produces the steepest performance gradients, while ignition voltage offers secondary benefits and engine speed exhibits minimal influence. The model reveals a highly nonlinear torque response to spark advance, characterized by a rapid rise culminating in a narrow maximum brake torque (MBT) plateau at 8°–10° BTDC, corresponding to a distinct BSFC minimum. Significant data scatter underscores the stochastic nature of hydrogen combustion, arising from multidomain interactions between air-fuel ratio, ignition strength, and phasing. The Markov-chain approach successfully captures this coupled deterministic-probabilistic behavior, highlighting the critical need for precise spark-timing control to optimize performance in hydrogen applications.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

AutomotiveExperiences

Publisher

Subject

Aerospace Engineering Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mechanical Engineering

Description

Automotive experiences invite researchers to contribute ideas on the main scope of Emerging automotive technology and environmental issues; Efficiency (fuel, thermal and mechanical); Vehicle safety and driving comfort; Automotive industry and supporting materials; Vehicle maintenance and technical ...