<![CDATA[Abstrak Penelitian ini mengkaji hubungan antara tingkat pengangguran alami atau yang biasa disebut The Natural Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) dan Kurva Phillips dalam konteks perekonomian Indonesia periode 2010 – 2025. Di tengah dinamika inflasi global dan perubahan struktural domestik, pertanyaan mendasar penelitian ini adalah, masihkah berlaku trade-off antara inflasi dan pengangguran dalam ekonomi Indonesia modern. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan metodologi kuantitatif-deskriptif yang diperkaya dengan analisis kualitatif normatif a la Islam. Data sekunder diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), dan International Monetary Fund (IMF), mencakup tiga variabel utama, yaitu, tingkat inflasi tahunan, tingkat pengangguran terbuka (TPT), dan tingkat Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Analisis statistik dilakukan menggunakan korelasi Pearson (r) dan diagram sebar (scatter plot) untuk mengamati pola Phillips Curve, sedangkan interpretasi normatif dilakukan dengan meninjau hasil empiris dalam bingkai nilai-nilai Islam seperti keseimbangan (mizan) dan keadilan (‘adl). Hasil perhitungan diperoleh nilai angka korelasi r = +0,12, yang menunjukkan adanya hubungan sangat lemah dan positif antara inflasi dan pengangguran. Pola ini menandakan bahwa trade-off klasik seperti yang dijelaskan oleh Phillips (1958) tidak lagi signifikan dalam konteks Indonesia. Fenomena ini mengafirmasi adanya model Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve sebagaimana dikemukakan oleh Friedman (1968) dan Phelps (1968), di mana ekspektasi inflasi dan kredibilitas kebijakan moneter menjadi faktor yang dominan dibanding hubungan kausal langsung antarvariabel. Pembahasan artikel, secara makroekonomi, lemahnya korelasi ini mencerminkan ketergantungan tinggi ekonomi Indonesia terhadap faktor struktural non-moneter seperti rigiditas pasar tenaga kerja, volatilitas harga pangan dan energi, serta ketidakseimbangan sektor formal–informal. Dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam, hasil ini memperkuat prinsip bahwa stabilitas harga tidak boleh dicapai dengan mengorbankan kemaslahatan sosial. Kebijakan ekonomi harus bergerak menuju keseimbangan yang adil melalui penguatan sektor riil, zakat produktif, dan wakaf sosial. Kesimpulannya, Phillips Curve di Indonesia cenderung datar (flat) dan tidak menunjukkan trade-off yang stabil antara inflasi dan pengangguran. Hasil penelitian ini menegaskan pentingnya sinergi antara kebijakan moneter dan kebijakan sosial agar pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat tercapai tanpa mengorbankan keadilan distributif dan kesejahteraan manusia sehingga idealisme penerapan ekonomi Islam dapat tercapai dan direalisasikan. Kata kunci : NAIRU, Phillips Curve, Inflasi, Pengangguran, Ekonomi Islam, Indonesia. Abstract This study examines the relationship between the natural rate of unemployment, commonly referred to as the Natural Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU), and the Phillips Curve within the context of the Indonesian economy over the period 2010–2025. Amid global inflationary dynamics and domestic structural changes, the central question of this research is whether the inflation–unemployment trade-off still holds in modern Indonesia. The study employs a quantitative–descriptive methodological approach, complemented by normative qualitative analysis from an Islamic economic perspective. Secondary data are obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), covering three main variables: annual inflation rates, open unemployment rates, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Statistical analysis is conducted using Pearson correlation (r) and scatter plot diagrams to observe the Phillips Curve pattern, while normative interpretation is carried out by examining the empirical findings through Islamic values such as balance (mizan) and justice (‘adl). The results indicate a correlation coefficient of r = +0.12, suggesting a very weak and positive relationship between inflation and unemployment. This pattern implies that the classical trade-off described by Phillips (1958) is no longer significant in the Indonesian context. The findings support the Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve model proposed by Friedman (1968) and Phelps (1968), in which inflation expectations and the credibility of monetary policy play a more dominant role than a direct causal relationship between the two variables. From a macroeconomic perspective, the weak correlation reflects Indonesia’s high dependence on non-monetary structural factors, such as labor market rigidities, volatility in food and energy prices, and imbalances between the formal and informal sectors. From the perspective of Islamic economics, these results reinforce the principle that price stability should not be achieved at the expense of social welfare. Economic policy should move toward a just equilibrium by strengthening the real sector, promoting productive zakat, and developing social waqf. In conclusion, the Phillips Curve in Indonesia tends to be relatively flat and does not exhibit a stable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This study underscores the importance of synergy between monetary policy and social policy to ensure that economic growth is achieved without sacrificing distributive justice and human well-being, in line with the ideals of Islamic economics. Keywords: NAIRU, Phillips Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Islamic Economics, Indonesia.]]>
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