ETIKONOMI
Vol. 25 No. 1 (2026)

Determinants of Indonesia’s Economic Growth:Short-Run and Long-Run Analysis

Zahra, Zhena Nofhatiaz (Unknown)
Anggraini, Dian Fitria (Unknown)
Hikmatias, Nazla Atikah (Unknown)
Kausar, Farid (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
19 May 2026

Abstract

Research Originality: The originality of this study lies in its integrated approach to analyzing Indonesia’s economic growth from a long-term structural perspective, capturing dynamic interactions among key macroeconomic variables within a cointegrated framework, and emphasizing the interconnected effects of policy reforms, external shocks, and macroeconomic forces. Research Objectives: This research aims to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of government expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment, exports, and inflation on Indonesia’s economic growth. Research Method: The study uses annual time-series data from 1993 to 2024 (32 observations) and applies the ARDL model to analyze both short- and long-run dynamics. Empirical Result: Short-run analysis shows that government spending, investment, and exports have positive effects on economic growth, while inflation has a negative effect, and foreign direct investment has no significant effect. Long-run analysis indicates that government spending and exports have positive effects, while all other factors have a negative impact on economic growth. Implications: Policy implications highlight the need to strengthen institutional quality, enhance investment effectiveness, ensure targeted government spending, and maintain inflation control to support long-term macroeconomic stability. JEL Classification: E62, F43, O11

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Journal Info

Abbrev

etikonomi

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Etikonomi is a peer-reviewed journal on Economics, Business and Management by Faculty of Economic and Business State Islamic University (UIN) Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. FOCUS This journal focused on economics, business, and management studies and present developments through the publication of ...