<![CDATA[Limited quantitative data and a 7% annual rate of seagrass degradation hamper efforts to optimize Indonesia’s blue carbon absorption potential within global climate change mitigation strategies. This study aims to quantify seagrass blue carbon stock and project its future dynamics in Teluk Saleh, West Nusa Tenggara. Seagrass distribution from 2019 to 2025 was mapped using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification approach. Carbon stock projections until 2035 were conducted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The results show significant temporal variability, with carbon stocks decreasing by approximately 16,000 tons (2022) and then increasing by 36,000 tons (2023). Projected peak recovery potential is approaching 50,000 tons (2028), but this projection remains sensitive to ongoing anthropogenic pressures. These findings underscore the importance of blue carbon quantification in supporting data-driven coastal management and climate mitigation policies, and highlight its potential to inform sustainable, non-extractive economic pathways.]]>
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