Perbandingan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing, dan Triple Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Permintaan Paving Block

Rangga Agriyan Purnama Setya (Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya)
Hilyatun Nuha (Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya)

Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN)
Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): April

CV. XYZ is a company engaged in the production of Paving Block K300. The problem faced is the company's inability to meet the surge in demand at the end of the year due to the lack of an adequate forecasting system. This study aims to compare the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) methods in forecasting Paving Block demand using data from May 2024 to April 2026. Forecasting accuracy was evaluated using MAD, MSD, and MAPE. The results showed that the TES method produced the smallest error value for all product types, namely rectangles (MAPE 4%), squares (MAPE 6%), 3-dimensional (MAPE 9%), hexagons (MAPE 12%), and bishops (MAPE 8%). Thus, the TES method is recommended as the basis for production planning at CV. XYZ.