Indonesian Journal of Infomatics
Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): May: Indonesian Journal of Infomatics

Predicting Multi-Morbidity Progression and Identifying Key Determinants in Chronic Disease Patients Using a Longitudinal Data-Driven Information Systems Approach: A Research Protocol for a Cohort Study in Bandung Regency, Indonesia

Lusianto Lusianto (Universitas Komputer Indonesia (UNIKOM))
Zaenal Arifin Hasibuan (Universitas Komputer Indonesia (UNIKOM))
Sri Supatmi (Universitas Komputer Indonesia (UNIKOM))
Adnan Shahid Khan (Universiti Malaysia Sarawak)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 May 2026

Abstract

Multimorbidity represents a critical challenge for primary healthcare systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In Indonesia, fragmented electronic health record (EHR) infrastructure limits effective chronic disease management. This research protocol presents an end-to-end information systems approach to: (1) design a validated ETL framework for heterogeneous health data; (2) develop and compare machine learning models (Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM) for predicting multimorbidity risk; (3) identify critical determinants in an Indonesian population; and (4) evaluate a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) prototype. A mixed-methods, three-phase design will analyze 150,000 chronic disease patients from SIMPUS EHR data (2021-2025). Phase 2 focuses on CDSS development using explainable AI (XAI), while Phase 3 evaluates user acceptance using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The study expects to produce a predictive model with AUC-ROC $\ge0.75$ and an operational CDSS prototype integrated with the Satu Sehat platform. This protocol addresses gaps in Southeast Asian LMIC data, implementation, and interpretability.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJI

Publisher

Subject

Description

Aims The Indonesian Journal of Informatics aims to publish high-quality research articles and scholarly works in the field of informatics and computing that contribute to the advancement of theory, technology, and practical applications of information and communication technologies to support ...