Buletin Ilmiah Sarjana Teknik Elektro
Vol. 8 No. 3 (2026): June

Maximization Very Short-Term Forecasting of Power Photovoltaic System Using Machine Learning Based on Clearness Index Model

Unit Three Kartini (Universitas Negeri Surabaya)
L. Endah Cahya Ningrum (Universitas Negeri Surabaya)
M. Nur Adiwana (Polytechnic State Madura)



Article Info

Publish Date
02 Jul 2026

Abstract

The hybrid model for very short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting, covering one hour ahead with 20-minute intervals, combines the k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) and multilayer backpropagation neural network (BP-NN) methods. The uniqueness of this model lies in integrating meteorological and the clarity index. the data preprocessing stage, the k-NN method is applied, while the multilayer BP-NN is used for forecasting. The k-NN Multilayer BP-NN algorithm calculates the nearest data points using Euclidean distance, and then processes the training and testing data through the multilayer BP-NN to generate PV power predictions. The simulation dataset was divided into 70% training data and 30% testing data, with a maximum PV power output of 611 W. The error statistical indicators of machine learning using k-NN-BP-NN model RMSE 27.44 W and MSE 1.5 W. These superior results are attributed to more stable weather patterns and consistent solar radiation. The simulation validity test demonstrated that the k-NN Multilayer BP-NN algorithm achieved better accuracy compared to the k-NN decomposition method. In addition, the model offers high computational efficiency and short inference time, making it highly suitable for real-time PV power forecasting systems.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

biste

Publisher

Subject

Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

Buletin Ilmiah Sarjana Teknik Elektro (BISTE) adalah jurnal terbuka dan merupakan jurnal nasional yang dikelola oleh Program Studi Teknik Elektro, Fakultas Teknologi Industri, Universitas Ahmad Dahlan. BISTE merupakan Jurnal yang diperuntukkan untuk mahasiswa sarjana Teknik Elektro. Ruang lingkup ...