Economics and Business Journal
Vol. 4 No. 5 (2026): July

Determinants of The Indonesian Composite Stock Index: An Error Correction Model Approach

Nindy Febriani (Universitas Tanjungpura)
Wendy Wendy (Universitas Tanjungpura)



Article Info

Publish Date
05 Jul 2026

Abstract

This study examines the effects of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), world gold prices, world oil prices, and the rupiah exchange rate on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in Indonesia. The study uses monthly secondary data from January 2015 to December 2025, comprising 132 observations. CSPI data were obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, DJIA, gold price, and oil price data were obtained from Investing.com, while exchange rate data were sourced from Bank Indonesia. The analysis employed the two-step Engle-Granger Error Correction Model (EG-ECM) to identify long-run relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics. The long-run results show that gold prices, world oil prices, and the DJIA have positive and significant effects on the CSPI, whereas the rupiah exchange rate has a negative but insignificant effect. In the short run, the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the CSPI, while gold prices, oil prices, and the DJIA have positive and significant effects. The Error Correction Term coefficient of -0.1325 is negative and significant, indicating that approximately 13.25% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected each month toward long-run equilibrium. These findings imply that investors and policymakers should closely monitor global market conditions, commodity price movements, and exchange rate volatility to support investment decisions and maintain Indonesian capital market stability

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Journal Info

Abbrev

go

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Economics and Business Journal (ECBIS) | ISSN (e): 2963-7589 is an international peer-reviewed, open access scientific journal dedicated to the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level research in the fields of Economics, Management and Business, this journal ...