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Nindy Febriani
Universitas Tanjungpura
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Determinants of The Indonesian Composite Stock Index: An Error Correction Model Approach Nindy Febriani; Wendy Wendy
Economics and Business Journal (ECBIS) Vol. 4 No. 5 (2026): July
Publisher : PT. Maju Malaqbi Makkarana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47353/ecbis.v4i5.457

Abstract

This study examines the effects of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), world gold prices, world oil prices, and the rupiah exchange rate on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in Indonesia. The study uses monthly secondary data from January 2015 to December 2025, comprising 132 observations. CSPI data were obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, DJIA, gold price, and oil price data were obtained from Investing.com, while exchange rate data were sourced from Bank Indonesia. The analysis employed the two-step Engle-Granger Error Correction Model (EG-ECM) to identify long-run relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics. The long-run results show that gold prices, world oil prices, and the DJIA have positive and significant effects on the CSPI, whereas the rupiah exchange rate has a negative but insignificant effect. In the short run, the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the CSPI, while gold prices, oil prices, and the DJIA have positive and significant effects. The Error Correction Term coefficient of -0.1325 is negative and significant, indicating that approximately 13.25% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected each month toward long-run equilibrium. These findings imply that investors and policymakers should closely monitor global market conditions, commodity price movements, and exchange rate volatility to support investment decisions and maintain Indonesian capital market stability
Co-Authors Wendy