Jurnal Ilmu Ilmu Agribisnis: Journal of Agribusiness Science
Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026)

ANALISIS KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL DAN RISIKO PENGEMBANGAN PERKEBUNAN KARET RAKYAT DI KECAMATAN GUNUNG PELINDUNG KABUPATEN LAMPUNG TIMUR

Fatihatun Ni’mah (Jurusan Agribisnis Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Lampung)
Wan Abbas Zakaria (Jurusan Agribisnis Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Lampung)
Fembriarti Erry Prasmatiwi (Jurusan Agribisnis Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Lampung)



Article Info

Publish Date
22 Jun 2026

Abstract

This study aimed to analyse the financial feasibility and risks of developing smallholder rubber plantations. The study used a survey method in Gunung Pelindung Subdistrict, East Lampung Regency, with data collection conducted from February to April 2025. The research samples were 48 rubber farmers selected using purposive sampling based on the age of the plants. The data analysis method used was financial feasibility analysis (NPV, IRR, Net B/C, Gross B/C, and Payback Period). Risk analysis used the Coefficient of Variation (CV). The results showed that smallholder rubber plantations were financially feasible with an NPV of IDR 96,735,632, an IRR of 12.15 percent, a Gross B/C of 1.36, a Net B/C of 1.96, and a Payback Period of 15.33 years. Sensitivity scenario calculations showed that the development of smallholder rubber plantations in Gunung Pelindung Subdistrict remained feasible with a percentage increase in production costs of up to 39 percent, a decreased in rubber production of up to 46 percent, and a decreased in the selling price of rubber of up to 51 percent. The price risk was classified as low (CV = 0.40), while the production risk was  classified as moderate (CV = 0.50). The greatest source of risk was caused by leaf fall disease, which occurs every year. Risk mitigation efforts were carried out by planting disease-resistant seedlings and applying fertilisers in accordance with government recommendations.  Key words: feasibility, financial, risk, rubber, sensitivity

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JIA

Publisher

Subject

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Description

Jurnal Ilmu Ilmu Agribisnis: Journal of Agribusiness Science is published by the Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Lampung, in collaboration with PERHEPI, the Indonesian Agricultural Economist Association. The first printed Journal was published in 2013 and the online ...