HILIRISASI CPO DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP TRANSFORMASI EKONOMI PROVINSI RIAU

Muhamad Nur Ziqrullah (Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Universitas Abdurrab, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia)
Kenepri Kenepri (Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Universitas Abdurrab, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia)
Amri Hakim (Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Universitas Abdurrab, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia)

Jurnal Cakrawala Ilmiah
Vol. 5 No. 10 (2026): Juni 2026

This study analyzes the impact of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) downstreaming policy on economic transformation in Riau Province using a mixed methods approach (concurrent triangulation design). Quantitative data were collected from 100 stakeholders via structured questionnaires, while qualitative data were gathered through in-depth interviews and document analysis. Three advanced analytical techniques were employed: Descriptive Statistics, the Leontief Interregional Input-Output (IRIO) Model, and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) via SmartPLS. Results show the downstreaming policy scored very high (mean = 4.22), with an output multiplier of 2.35. SEM confirmed a positive and significant total effect on economic transformation (β = 0.79; R² = 0.71), partially mediated by industrial value-added. CPO downstream industry was confirmed as a key sector with forward linkage 1.68 and backward linkage 1.42. This study concludes that CPO downstreaming has shifted Riau's economy toward manufacturing, though infrastructure and smallholder partnerships require further optimization.