INOVTEK Polbeng - Seri Informatika
Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): February

A Comparative Analysis of Deep Learning Models for Stock Price Prediction

I Gusti Ayu Nandia Lestari (Institute of Technology and Business (ITB) STIKOM Bali)
Deviana (Institute of Technology and Business (ITB) STIKOM Bali)
Tubagus Mahendra Kusuma (Institute of Technology and Business (ITB) STIKOM Bali)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Feb 2026

Abstract

Indonesian equities exhibit high volatility and non-stationary dynamics, making consistent price forecasting difficult under realistic deployment settings. This study presents a comparative benchmark of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM) for one-step-ahead (t+1) stock price prediction using Walk-Forward Validation (WFV) to preserve temporal causality and avoid optimistic single-split estimates. Historical data are retrieved from Yahoo Finance and modeled in a multivariate OHLCV setting (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume). After missing-value removal, feature standardization, and Min–Max scaling, the series is converted to supervised samples via a sliding window with lookback = 30 trading days; evaluation is focused on the Close variable. Model performance is assessed using MAE, RMSE, and R², including inter-fold variability to quantify stability across market regimes. Across five Indonesian tickers (AGRO, ADES, ADMF, AALI, ADHI), LSTM consistently outperforms Bi-LSTM (5/5 tickers) in both MAE and RMSE, indicating that the added bidirectional complexity does not translate into improved out-of-sample forecasting under WFV. The best error performance is achieved by LSTM on AGRO (MAE = 26.99, RMSE = 32.72), while the least-negative goodness-of-fit is observed on LSTM AALI (R² = -0.63), suggesting that both deep models may still underperform naïve baselines in several folds. Overall, the results support LSTM as a more stable and implementation-ready benchmark for Indonesian stock forecasting under time-aware evaluation, while highlighting the need for explicit baseline comparisons and stronger feature/target designs to improve out-of-sample generalization.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ISI

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

The Journal of Innovation and Technology (INOVTEK Polbeng—Seri Informatika) is a distinguished publication hosted by the State Polytechnic of Bengkalis. Dedicated to advancing the field of informatics, this scientific research journal serves as a vital platform for academics, researchers, and ...