<![CDATA[This study analyzes the determinants of poverty, unemployment, and income inequality in Siak Regency for the period 2014–2023 using OLS multiple linear regression with time-series data from BPS. Three models were tested: (1) poverty was influenced by HDI and economic growth rate (LPE); (2) TPT by PDRB ADHK, poverty, and HDI; (3) Gini Index by GDP ADHK and APS. The results showed that HDI had a significant negative effect on poverty (? = ?0.1108; t = ?2.56; p = 0.038; R² = 50.11%), while LPE was insignificant (p = 0.728). The unemployment model was simultaneously significant (F = 6.18; p = 0.0288; R² = 75.56%), although the variables were not significant partially, with coefficients consistent with theoretical expectations. The inequality model was significant simultaneously for GDP and APS (F = 108.65; p = 0.000; R² = 96.88%); autocorrelation was addressed using Prais–Winsten AR(1). All models met classical assumptions (Shapiro–Wilk normality test, Breusch–Pagan heteroscedasticity test, VIF < 10 for multicollinearity). The findings confirm that Siak’s capital-intensive economic structure inhibits inclusivity, with HDI as a key instrument for poverty alleviation, unemployment reduction, and inequality mitigation. Recommendations include diversification toward labor-intensive sectors, local industry–based vocational education, and redistribution of GDP through village funds]]>
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