Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application
Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Juni 2026

Penerapan Persamaan Diferensial Model Eksponensial dan Logistik dalam Mengestimasi Jumlah Penduduk Di Nusa Tenggara Barat

Rida Alkausar Hardi (Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Mataram)
Ifan Hasnan Dani (Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Mataram)
Rio Satriyantara (Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Mataram)
Hady Rasikhun (Teknik Pertambangan, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Muhammdiyah Mataram)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jun 2026

Abstract

Rapid population growth can lead to social and economic problems if it is not properly controlled. This studyaims to model the population of West Nusa Tenggara using differential equation models, namely theexponential and logistic models. Population data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia for the period from1994 until 2024. The exponential model was applied by calculating the growth rate based on the actual data,while the suitability of the logistic model was also examined. The results indicate that the logistic model isnot valid because it produces a negative carrying capacity, which contradicts the fundamental assumptionsof the model. Meanwhile, the second exponential model, with a population growth rate of 1.5% per year,provides the best accuracy based on a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 0.78%. Therefore,the exponential model is considered the most appropriate approach for predicting the population of West NusaTenggara until 2034.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

Griya

Publisher

Subject

Education Mathematics

Description

Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application adalah Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika yang dikelola oleh Program Studi S1 Pendidikan Matematika Universitas Mataram. Fokus dan ruang lingkup dari jurnal ini adalah artikel ilmiah baik berupa hasil penelitian, review artikel maupun ...