<![CDATA[Residential development in Jakarta demands a balance between economic efficiency and environmental sustainability, which often creates a trade-off. This study evaluates construction system combinations from economic and environmental perspectives, alongside their cost risk robustness. Using a comparative case study of three residential projects in Jakarta, eight alternatives were formulated from foundation (bore pile vs mini pile), superstructure (concrete vs steel), and wall (red brick vs lightweight concrete block) variables. The analysis covers cost calculations, Embodied Carbon inventory, and Monte Carlo simulation via Crystal Ball software, integrating construction waste volume uncertainties based on historical data. Results indicate the mini pile, concrete, and lightweight block combination is the cheapest, whereas bore pile, steel, and red brick is the most expensive. Interestingly, the Embodied Carbon analysis reveals that the cheapest system generates higher emissions than the most expensive one, highlighting a significant trade-off. Furthermore, a 100,000-trial Monte Carlo simulation proves the most expensive combination has a higher cost overrun probability due to the high waste index of WF/H-beam steel profiles, while the cheapest shows stable robustness against budget overruns. In conclusion, construction system selection must not rely solely on a deterministic approach to direct costs. Abstrak Pembangunan perumahan di Jakarta menuntut keseimbangan antara efisiensi ekonomi dan keberlanjutan lingkungan yang seringkali menimbulkan trade-off. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi perbandingan kombinasi sistem konstruksi dari perspektif ekonomi dan dampak lingkungan, serta menganalisis ketahanan risiko (robustness) biayanya. Metode penelitian menggunakan studi kasus komparatif pada tiga proyek rumah tinggal di Jakarta. Delapan kombinasi alternatif dirumuskan dari variabel fondasi (bore pile vs mini pile), struktur atas (beton vs baja), dan dinding (bata merah vs bata ringan). Analisis mencakup perhitungan biaya, inventarisasi Embodied Carbon, dan simulasi Monte Carlo melalui software Crystal Ball dengan mengintegrasikan variabel ketidakpastian volume construction waste berbasis data historis proyek. Hasilnya, kombinasi mini pile, beton, dan bata ringan menjadi sistem termurah, sedangkan bore pile, baja, dan bata merah menjadi yang termahal. Menariknya, analisis Embodied Carbon menunjukkan sistem termurah justru menghasilkan emisi karbon lebih besar dibandingkan sistem termahal, mengungkap trade-off signifikan antara biaya dan lingkungan. Lebih lanjut, simulasi Monte Carlo dengan 100.000 trials membuktikan bahwa kombinasi termahal memiliki probabilitas cost overrun lebih tinggi akibat besarnya indeks waste baja profil WF/H-beam, sedangkan kombinasi termurah menunjukkan robustness yang lebih stabil dan aman secara probabilistik terhadap risiko pembengkakan anggaran. Kesimpulannya, pemilihan sistem konstruksi tidak boleh hanya berorientasi deterministik pada biaya direct.]]>
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