Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application
Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Juni 2026

Modeling Online Loan Risk Dynamics with SEIQRL, Regulation, and Financial Literacy Analysis in Indonesia

Christari Lois Palit (Universitas Negeri Manado)
Agresia Servina Sabubun (Universitas Negeri Manado)
Dyrel Samuel Kusnadi (Universitas Negeri Manado)
Julius Zendrato (Universitas Negeri Manado)
Mikha Rajagukguk (Universitas Negeri Manado)
Tessy Angraini Mokodanga (Universitas Negeri Manado)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Jun 2026

Abstract

This study examines the dynamics of risky online lending behavior in Indonesia using the SEIQRL mathematical model. The model extends the SEIR approach by adding Quarantined (Q) and Literate (L) compartments to represent regulatory intervention and financial literacy. This study aims to construct the SEIQRL model, analyze the risk-free equilibrium point, calculate the basic reproduction number (R₀), and evaluate the effects of regulation and financial literacy on the spread of risky online lending behavior. The method uses a quantitative approach based on mathematical modeling and numerical simulation with Wolfram Mathematica. The results show that the baseline scenario produces an R₀ value of 6.1538, indicating that risky online lending behavior can spread strongly within the population. Strong regulation and strong literacy scenarios reduce the risk, but they do not fully control its spread. The combined regulation and literacy scenario produces an R₀ value of 0.8696, meaning the risk can be controlled because R₀ < 1. These findings show that controlling risky online lending cannot rely only on access restrictions or service blocking. Early financial literacy must also serve as a preventive strategy. The SEIQRL model can support policy analysis for controlling online lending risks in Indonesia.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

Griya

Publisher

Subject

Education Mathematics

Description

Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application adalah Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika yang dikelola oleh Program Studi S1 Pendidikan Matematika Universitas Mataram. Fokus dan ruang lingkup dari jurnal ini adalah artikel ilmiah baik berupa hasil penelitian, review artikel maupun ...