Habitat suitability and distribution of Sumatran serow (Capricornis sumatraensis sumatraensis) in a Leuser ecosystem, Indonesia

SUTOPO SUTOPO (Tropical Biodiversity Conservation Study Program, Department of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Institut Pertanian Bogor)
DEDE AULIA RAHMAN (Department of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Institut Pertanian Bogor. Jl. Ulin, Lingkar Akademik Kampus IPB, Dramaga, Bogor 16680, West Java, Indonesia)
IKSAN GUSTIAWAN (Tropical Biodiversity Conservation Study Program, Department of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Institut Pertanian Bogor)
MISBAH SATRIA GIRI (Directorate of Species and Genetics Conservation, Ministry of Forestry. Manggala Wanabakti Block VII, 7th Floor, Jl. Gatot Subroto, Senayan, Central Jakarta 10270, Jakarta, Indonesia)
MAFRIKHUL MUTTAQIN (Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Pertanian Bogor. Jl. Raya Dramaga, Kampus IPB Darmaga, Bogor 16680, West Java, Indonesia)
MUHAMMAD SAUKI AKBAR (Tropical Biodiversity Conservation Study Program, Department of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Institut Pertanian Bogor)

Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity
Vol. 26 No. 8 (2025)

Abstract. Sutopo S, Rahman DA, Gustiawan I, Giri MS, Muttaqin M, Akbar MS. 2025. Habitat suitability and distribution of Sumatran serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) in a Leuser ecosystem, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 26: 3875-3885. Determining the distribution of species and suitable habitats is a fundamental part of planning for the protection of key species. Mount Leuser National Park (MLNP), Indonesia, is habitat to the Sumatran serow (Capricornis sumatraensis sumatraensis), an endangered ungulate species. Habitat loss due to deforestation for agriculture, oil palm plantations, illegal hunting, and illegal trade in body parts are factors contributing to the increasing pressure on this species in its natural habitat. Therefore, this study aims to model the distribution of the Sumatran serow and identify priority conservation zones based on habitat suitability models. We conducted ensemble modelling implemented in the R package ‘ENMTML’ using 3 modelling techniques (MaxEnt, Random Forest, and Boosted Regression Tree) and an ensemble model. We combined 282 Sumatran serow occurrence points with 9 climate, topography, vegetation, and anthropogenic variables. The Random Forest model performed best among the three models in predicting Sumatran serow habitat, with an AUC value of 0.89 and TSS of 0.62. The Random Forest model predicts a larger area with low habitat suitability, covering 74% (610,520 ha) of the total area, with moderate habitat suitability covering 16% (131,090 ha) and high habitat suitability covering only 10% (78,139 ha) of the Sumatran serow distribution across the study area. Our model can help identify potential protection areas for this species to support its conservation. This has implications for knowledge about the current distribution and suitable habitat for Sumatran serow. Conservation efforts can be focused more effectively on core zones, particularly in Section III, Blangkejeren, and Section IV, Badar. By utilising the results of the habitat suitability model for several actions such as evaluating MLNP zoning, prioritising monitoring areas, considering corridors for connectivity, and evaluating habitat restoration programmes, conservation strategies for Sumatran serows in MLNP will be improved, and the chances of survival for Sumatran serow populations in the future can be maintained.