Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Produksi pada Pembuatan Smart Trolley dengan Single Exponential Smoothing

Indra Setiawan ((ID Scopus: 57245604300 Scopus H-Index=3) ASTRA Polytechnic)
Bennedictus Abimanyu (Politeknik Astra)
Muhammad Daffa Arlianto (Politeknik Astra)
Ignasius Septian Pandiangan (Politeknik Astra)
Muhammad Rafi (Politeknik Astra)
Muhammad Aziz Fitroryan (Politeknik Astra)

JURNAL PASTI (PENELITIAN DAN APLIKASI SISTEM DAN TEKNIK INDUSTRI)
Vol. 20 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal PASTI

Production Planning and Inventory Control (PPIC), particularly forecasting, plays an important role in supporting accurate production planning for Smart Trolley manufacturing. Dynamic demand changes in the production process create challenges in determining material requirements, production quantities, and schedules. Based on historical data from January to December, Smart Trolley demand increased from 5 units to 25 units, representing a 400% increase. These conditions create challenges in production planning, making the use of a reliable forecasting approach essential to support planning decisions. This study examines Smart Trolley demand patterns and determines the best parameter of the Single Exponential Smoothing method with the lowest forecasting error. A quantitative approach was applied using 12 months of historical demand data with smoothing constants (α) of 0.3 and 0.5. Forecasting accuracy was evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that Single Exponential Smoothing with α = 0.5 achieved the best accuracy, producing a forecast of 23.05 units for the next period and providing a basis for more effective Smart Trolley production planning.