Journal of Creativity Student
Vol. 9 No. 3s (2026): Special Edition

Does Retail Attention Move Prices or Just Trading? Google Search Evidence from the Indonesia Stock Exchange

Nana Varian Januardi (Universitas Diponegoro)



Article Info

Publish Date
10 Jan 2026

Abstract

We ask whether retail investor attention forecasts stock returns or only trading in an emerging, retail-dominated market. Using weekly Google search volume for 65 heavily-searched IDX80 stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange over 2021–2025, we build an abnormal-search measure and estimate predictive panel regressions with firm and week fixed effects and clustered standard errors. Attention is associated with next-week abnormal trading volume: the relation holds across ten specifications, passes a within-week permutation test and a multiple-testing correction, and survives controlling for the contemporaneous price shock, though it shares variance with same-week trading. Attention does not forecast directional returns, and the confidence interval is tight enough to exclude a developed-market-sized price continuation. We find no robust reversal and no concentration in small stocks; if anything it is stronger among large, recognizable names. We also document the keyword-disambiguation problem that non-English tickers create for search-based attention measures.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jcs

Publisher

Subject

Social Sciences

Description

Journal of Creativity Student (ISSN 2502-1958 and 2962-603X, see also Portal ISSN) is a double blind peer reviewed journal published by Research & Community Services Unit, Universitas Negeri Semarang (LPPM UNNES). The Journal publishes scientific papers concerning creativity in broad range and by ...