Dinamika Elektabilitas dan Strategi Komunikasi Politik Prabowo-Gibran dalam Pilpres 2024

Rashda Bintang Muhammad (Sebelas Maret University)

Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Politik dan Humaniora
Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): Maret 2026

Penelitian ini menganalisis dinamika elektabilitas dan strategi komunikasi politik pasangan calon Prabowo Subianto dan Gibran Rakabuming Raka selama Pemilihan Presiden (Pilpres) 2024. Fokus utama studi ini adalah mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi fluktuasi elektabilitas serta mengevaluasi efektivitas strategi kampanye digital dan tradisional yang digunakan. Metode penelitian menggabungkan pendekatan kualitatif (analisis framing media dan wawancara dengan tim sukses) serta kuantitatif (pengolahan data survei dan big data dari media sosial). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan elektabilitas pasangan ini dipengaruhi oleh (1) penggunaan konten populis dan gaya komunikasi "gemoy" di platform TikTok dan Instagram, (2) konsolidasi dukungan partai koalisi, serta (3) resonansi narasi keberlanjutan pemerintahan Jokowi. Namun, tantangan muncul terkait polarisasi publik akibat isu kontroversial seperti latar belakang HAM Prabowo dan status Gibran sebagai putra presiden. Studi ini memberikan wawasan tentang pergeseran tren komunikasi politik di era digital dan implikasinya terhadap demokrasi elektoral di Indonesia.   This study analyzes the dynamics of electability and political communication strategies of the candidate pair Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka during the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres). The main focus of this study is to identify factors that influence electability fluctuations and evaluate the effectiveness of the digital and traditional campaign strategies used. The research method combines qualitative approaches (media framing analysis and interviews with the campaign team) and quantitative (survey data processing and big data from social media). The results of the study show that the increase in the electability of this pair was influenced by (1) the use of populist content and the "gemoy" communication style on the TikTok and Instagram platforms, (2) the consolidation of coalition party support, and (3) the resonance of the narrative of the continuity of the Jokowi government. However, challenges arise related to public polarization due to controversial issues such as Prabowo's human rights background and Gibran's status as the president's son. This study provides insight into the shifting trends in political communication in the digital era and its implications for electoral democracy in Indonesia.