Cloud-Resilient Forest Monitoring for Sustainable Urban Land Management: L-Band SAR Assessment of Charcoal-Driven Peri-Urban Woodland Change in Lusaka, Zambia

Musoka Nyongolo (National Centre for Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (NACUAS), University of Zambia, Zambia)
Florence Lubinda (University of Zambia)
Penjani Hopkins Nyimbili (National Centre for Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (NACUAS), University of Zambia, Zambia)
Alick Nguvulu (National Centre for Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (NACUAS), University of Zambia, Zambia)
Anastasia Kilundo (Department of National Parks and Wildlife (DNPW), Ministry of Tourism, Zambia)
Erastus Mwanaumo (National Centre for Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (NACUAS), University of Zambia, Zambia)

Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs
Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs

Rapid urban growth in sub-Saharan Africa is intensifying pressure on forest areas surrounding major cities. In Lusaka, with a metropolitan population of approximately 3.32 million growing at 4.5% annually, peri-urban miombo woodlands supply charcoal and farmland, yet these areas are hardest to monitor during the five-month rainy season when cloud cover exceeds 80% and optical satellite imagery fails. This study examines whether L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar can provide year-round woodland monitoring and whether such a workflow is financially practical for a resource-limited African city. A 17-year ALOS/PALSAR time series (2007–2024) for Lusaka National Park was analysed using QGIS and Python, combining multi-temporal statistics, a GEDI-calibrated Random Forest biomass model (R² = 0.76), and a disturbance indicator. The approach achieved 85.4% classification accuracy and a 31% cost reduction over conventional ground monitoring, demonstrating an operationally feasible, open-source SAR monitoring framework for African urban governance contexts.