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All Journal Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs
Anastasia Kilundo
Department of National Parks and Wildlife (DNPW), Ministry of Tourism, Zambia

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Cloud-Resilient Forest Monitoring for Sustainable Urban Land Management: L-Band SAR Assessment of Charcoal-Driven Peri-Urban Woodland Change in Lusaka, Zambia Musoka Nyongolo; Florence Lubinda; Penjani Hopkins Nyimbili; Alick Nguvulu; Anastasia Kilundo; Erastus Mwanaumo
Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs
Publisher : Alanya Üniversitesi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25034/ijcua.2026.v10n1-13

Abstract

Rapid urban growth in sub-Saharan Africa is intensifying pressure on forest areas surrounding major cities. In Lusaka, with a metropolitan population of approximately 3.32 million growing at 4.5% annually, peri-urban miombo woodlands supply charcoal and farmland, yet these areas are hardest to monitor during the five-month rainy season when cloud cover exceeds 80% and optical satellite imagery fails. This study examines whether L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar can provide year-round woodland monitoring and whether such a workflow is financially practical for a resource-limited African city. A 17-year ALOS/PALSAR time series (2007–2024) for Lusaka National Park was analysed using QGIS and Python, combining multi-temporal statistics, a GEDI-calibrated Random Forest biomass model (R² = 0.76), and a disturbance indicator. The approach achieved 85.4% classification accuracy and a 31% cost reduction over conventional ground monitoring, demonstrating an operationally feasible, open-source SAR monitoring framework for African urban governance contexts.
Co-Authors Alick Nguvulu Erastus Mwanaumo Florence Lubinda Musoka Nyongolo Penjani Hopkins Nyimbili