Journal of Social And Economics Research
Vol 8 No 2 (2026): JSER, December 2026

LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN DYNAMICS OF CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO), WORLD CRUDE OIL (WTI), AND COAL PRICES ON THE INDONESIAN COMPOSITE INDEX (IHSG)

Siana Ria (Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis Dewantara, Bogor, Indonesia)
Makmur Sianipar (Universitas Tama Jagakarsa, Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Aug 2026

Abstract

This study analyzes the long-run and short-run dynamic relationships between Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, and coal prices on the Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG). The researcher applies an explanatory quantitative design using weekly secondary time-series data from 2024 to 2026. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach and Error Correction Model (ECM) process natural logarithm transformed data following unit root tests that confirm stationarity at first difference I(1). Bounds Testing results prove the existence of cointegration among variables at the 10 percent significance level. In the long run, CPO and WTI prices exert statistically significant negative impacts on the IHSG. Increases in CPO and WTI prices depress domestic stock market performance through higher operational cost transmissions and systematic risk sentiment accumulation. Conversely, coal prices demonstrate a positive but statistically insignificant effect on the IHSG due to sectoral offsetting mechanisms across listed firms. The Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient of -0.075 confirms a relatively slow speed of adjustment at 7.54 percent per week toward long-run equilibrium. This empirical finding highlights weak-form market inefficiency within the Indonesia Stock Exchange in absorbing global commodity market shocks instantly. Capital market regulators and portfolio managers must actively monitor these commodity risk transmissions to formulate market stabilization policies and design adaptive investment portfolio diversification strategies.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JSER

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Social Sciences

Description

Journal of Social and Economics Research (JSER) is a peer-reviewed journal that focuses on critical studies of social and economic research. Investigated the dynamics of teaching and learning of social education, and social and economic problems in society at the primary, senior, and high education ...