Journal Informatic, Education and Management (JIEM)
Vol 8 No 2 (2026): AUGUST

THE EFFECT OF CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE LEVEL AND MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON INFLATION IN INDONESIA, THAILAND, THE PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, AND VIETNAM 2004–2023

Klara Lushanda Frelisia (University of Lampung, Bandar Lampung)
Nurbetty Herlina Sitorus (University of Lampung, Bandar Lampung)



Article Info

Publish Date
08 Aug 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of the level of central bank independence, interest rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and exchange rates on inflation in Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam during the period 2004–2023. Secondary panel data were obtained from the World Bank–World Development Indicators and the Central Bank Independence Dataset developed by Garriga, then analyzed using panel data regression with the help of EViews software. Based on the results of the Chow Test and the Hausman Test, the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was selected as the most appropriate estimation model, with Cross-section SUR (Panel Corrected Standard Errors/PCSE) correction to address heteroscedasticity issues. The results show that partially central bank independence has a positive but insignificant effect on inflation at the 5 percent significance level, so it is not able to explain inflation control in the sample countries. Interest rates have a negative and significant effect on inflation, indicating that interest rate increases are still effective in suppressing the inflation rate. GDP growth has a negative but insignificant effect on inflation, while the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on inflation, so that exchange rate depreciation tends to increase inflationary pressures. Simultaneously, the four independent variables significantly influenced inflation, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.780071. This finding indicates that inflation stability in the five ASEAN countries is more influenced by conventional macroeconomic factors, particularly exchange rates and interest rates, than by the level of central bank independence. The research findings are expected to provide input for monetary authorities and the government in formulating policies that support price stability by strengthening monetary policy coordination and managing exchange rate stability.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jiem

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Other

Description

Perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan terkait dengan teknologi, informasi dan komunikasi baik secara teoritis maupun empiris terbukti sudah memberikan dampak positif bagi berbagai sisi kehidupan masyarakat. Perkembangan ilmu Bidang Teknologi Informasi Dan Komunikasi sudah banyak memberikan manfaat bagi ...