Research Center Journal of Informatics and Information Systems
Vol 1 No 1 (2026): Juli 2026

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Approaches for Diabetes Prediction: Stability of Hold-Out Testing versus Cross-Validation

Ade Putra Prima Suhendri (Unknown)
Meidy Fajar Wahyu (Unknown)
Amin Hidayat (Unknown)
Lely Panca Andriyanto (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
27 Jul 2026

Abstract

Automated medical diagnostic systems often face operational challenges when dealing with clinical datasets that contain noise, biological zero-value anomalies, and class imbalance issues. This study offers an empirical benchmark of six supervised machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Gradient Boosting (GB), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB)—evaluated directly on the un-imputed Pima Indians Diabetes dataset. We systematically compare the performance differences between a single 80:20 hold-out test split and a 10-fold stratified cross-validation, assessing accuracy, stability, and discrimination across various thresholds. Results show that while the hold-out test favors Random Forest (92.86%) and Decision Tree (92.21%) in accuracy, stratified cross-validation reveals that ensemble models like Gradient Boosting (88.94% CV accuracy) and Random Forest (88.55% CV accuracy) provide better operational stability. Additionally, threshold-independent metrics indicate that Gradient Boosting and Random Forest share top ROC-AUC scores (0.98), with Gradient Boosting leading in Precision-Recall AUC (0.97). Lower stability is observed in linear and probabilistic models such as SVM (81.17% accuracy, 0.84 ROC-AUC) and Gaussian Naïve Bayes on raw features. These results emphasize that relying solely on single hold-out evaluations may overestimate how well classifiers generalize, with ensemble methods emerging as the most robust approach for unconstrained clinical risk assessment.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

RCJIIS

Publisher

Subject

Description

Research Center Journal of Informatics and Information Systems (RCJIIS) is dedicated to pioneering and propagating high-quality research in the domains of Computer Science Applications, Artificial Intelligence, and Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. Our journal serves as a premier platform for ...