Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies

Dynamic interactions of local tax revenues in Cirebon Regency: A vector autoregression approach

Aji Priambodo (Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Tangerang Raya)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Aug 2026

Abstract

This research analyzes the dynamic interaction of local tax revenue sources in Cirebon Regency to understand how these components are interdependent within the context of fiscal decentralization. The study used a quantitative approach and monthly time-series data from January 2021 to December 2024. The variables analyzed included hotel tax, advertisement tax, street lighting tax, and land and building transfer tax. The research employed a vector autoregression model to analyze the relationships without imposing prior structural restrictions. Pre-estimation tests confirmed that all variables were stationary in levels and that the estimated system was stable. The Granger causality test results indicated no statistically significant causal relationships among the tax variables. Furthermore, the forecast error variance decomposition revealed a strong degree of exogeneity, where variations in each tax component were driven primarily by its own innovations rather than exogenous shocks from other taxes. The study concluded that these local revenue sources operated independently in the short run, meaning the collection and performance of one tax did not significantly influence the others.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jerps

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies [2797-8141] is a scientific journal that contains the results of theoretical research and studies on economics issues. The focus of this journal article is Economics, Economic Entrepreneurship, and start-up, development economics, monetary and fiscal ...