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All Journal Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Aji Priambodo
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Tangerang Raya
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Dynamic interactions of local tax revenues in Cirebon Regency: A vector autoregression approach Aji Priambodo
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v6i2.2957

Abstract

This research analyzes the dynamic interaction of local tax revenue sources in Cirebon Regency to understand how these components are interdependent within the context of fiscal decentralization. The study used a quantitative approach and monthly time-series data from January 2021 to December 2024. The variables analyzed included hotel tax, advertisement tax, street lighting tax, and land and building transfer tax. The research employed a vector autoregression model to analyze the relationships without imposing prior structural restrictions. Pre-estimation tests confirmed that all variables were stationary in levels and that the estimated system was stable. The Granger causality test results indicated no statistically significant causal relationships among the tax variables. Furthermore, the forecast error variance decomposition revealed a strong degree of exogeneity, where variations in each tax component were driven primarily by its own innovations rather than exogenous shocks from other taxes. The study concluded that these local revenue sources operated independently in the short run, meaning the collection and performance of one tax did not significantly influence the others.
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