BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Vol 20 No 4 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application

MODELING AND ESTIMATING DYNAMIC CONTRACEPTIVE BEHAVIOR USING SPATIO-TEMPORAL PHYSICS-INFORMED NEURAL NETWORKS

Lely Kurnia (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Malaysia)
Nor Azah Samat (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Malaysia)
Mira Meilisa (Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Padang, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
24 Aug 2026

Abstract

This study develops a Spatio-Temporal Physics-Informed Neural Network (ST-PINN) framework to model contraceptive use dynamics in West Sumatra, Indonesia. Existing models often assume spatial homogeneity and time-invariant parameters, which limit their ability to reflect real-world regional disparities and temporal changes in contraceptive behavior. To address this limitation, this study proposes a hybrid modeling approach that integrates differential equation-based modeling with data-driven learning in a spatio-temporal framework. The proposed model estimates contraceptive adoption, success, and failure rates across 19 districts and cities from 2012 to 2024. This study contributes by (1) developing a spatio-temporal PINN framework for dynamic parameter estimation, (2) integrating spatial and temporal data into a mechanistic model, and (3) providing region-specific insights into contraceptive dynamics. The PINN model achieves high predictive accuracy, with RMSE values ranging from 0.04678 to 0.16132 and R² values exceeding 0.85 in several regions with stable data patterns. In contrast, the ST-PINN framework provides enhanced capability in capturing spatial heterogeneity and reveals distinct regional patterns, including consistently high adoption rates in the Mentawai Islands and notable post-2018 changes across multiple regions. However, performance variability across regions indicates the presence of unobserved local factors. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal heterogeneity in demographic modeling and demonstrate the significance of the ST-PINN framework as a flexible and effective tool for capturing complex regional dynamics and supporting policy-relevant decision-making in reproductive health. Nevertheless, the absence of socio-economic and behavioral variables remains a limitation. Future research should integrate additional data sources to improve model robustness and interpretability.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

barekeng

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

Description

BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan is one of the scientific publication media, which publish the article related to the result of research or study in the field of Pure Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Focus and scope of BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, as follows: - Pure ...