PREDIKSI : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan
Vol 25, No 2 (2026)

Path Dependence and Constrained Path Creation in a Newcomer Political Organization Party: Insight from Post Democratic Transition Context

Muhammad Sakur (Universitas Gadjah Mada)
Muslem Muslem (Universitas Malikussaleh Aceh)
Kirwan Kirwan (UIN Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jul 2026

Abstract

Stalled progress on institutional change was curtailed by a path-dependence mechanism, such as increasing returns and self-reinforcing coordination effects. Bringing institutional accounts to study the Gema Bangsa Party (GBP), a newcomer political party in Indonesia seeking to challenge established party structures through organisational and programmatic innovation. This article found the path-creation within an endogeneity strategy to change. In this case, though the path dependence mechanism revealed in the case under examination is shaped by the internal legacy of the organisation (e.g., leadership culture, routines, or elite conflicts), it is also strongly shaped by external sources operating through state regulation, the structure of electoral competition, and the norms of the party organisational field. This argument was backed up by interview findings showing that the party, although faced with "old player" hegemony challenges under the internal governing system, also performed small changes made within the party, such as decentralising party power, thereby converging between old and "new" schools. The theoretical implication is the expansion of the path dependence reading from a mere mechanism of "path dependency" that grows endogenously within organisations toward a model that incorporates external path enforcement as a path reinforcer toward limited path-creation.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

PD

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Description

Prediksi: Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan is a national and open access journal published by the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences of the University of August 17, 1945 Samarinda. Prediction focuses on the development of the study of the humanities and social sciences. The purpose of our ...