Proceeding of The International Conference on Economics, Accounting, and Taxation
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): Proceeding of the International Conference on Economics, Accounting, and Taxati

From Financial Distress to Corporate Turnaround: An Episode-Based Measurement Approach in an Emerging Market Context

Hendra Agustinus Marbun (Unknown)
Erlina Erlina (Unknown)
Abdillah Arif Nasution (Unknown)
Chandra Situmeang (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
22 Jun 2026

Abstract

This paper introduces an episode-based measurement approach for studying corporate turnaround in emerging markets, addressing a fundamental methodological limitation in existing literature that predominantly treats the firm as the unit of analysis. Using data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) covering 2000–2024, we identify 96 financial distress episodes from 87 non-financial firms, where distress is defined economically as periods when return on investment (ROI) falls below the prevailing risk-free rate. The episode-based framework reconceptualizes the unit of analysis from individual firms to discrete distress-recovery sequences, enabling temporal alignment of distress onset, strategy implementation, and recovery assessment. Descriptive findings reveal that 43.75% of episodes achieved successful turnaround, with management turnover present in 51.04% of episodes and macroeconomic shocks coinciding with 27.08% of episodes. An early empirical validation using binary logistic regression with cluster-robust standard errors demonstrates excellent model classification ability (AUC = 0.817, 75% accuracy). This paper contributes primarily to research methodology in turnaround studies by proposing a replicable, theoretically grounded approach that captures the dynamic, episodic nature of financial distress and recovery particularly relevant in emerging market environments characterized by recurrent macroeconomic volatility.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ICEAT

Publisher

Subject

Description

Proceeding of the International Conference on Economics, Accounting, and Taxation, Its a collection of scientific papers or articles that have been presented at the National Research Conference which is held regularly every year by the Indonesian Economic and Accounting Research Association.The ...