<![CDATA[AbstractUnstable palm sap and molded sugar supplies remain major obstacles to granulated palm sugar production, particularly for small-scale enterprises susceptible to seasonal variations, pest infestations, and limitations in producer and supplier capacities. Prioritizing risk sources and mitigation measures is essential to ensure that limited resources are directed toward the most significant causes of disruption and the most feasible interventions. This study employs a case study approach involving a single palm sugar granule agroindustry and one expert. The SCOR 12.0 model was used to map supply chain activities. The House of Risk (Phase 1) was used to calculate Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP); Pareto analysis was used to filter priority risk agents. The Analytical Network Process (ANP) was used to rank preventive actions based on effectiveness, productivity contribution, and ease of implementation. This study identified 14 activities, 18 risk events, and 19 risk agents. Four priority risk agents accounted for 77.63% of the total ARP: seasonal fluctuations in molded sugar productivity, production failure caused by pests, limited supplier capacity, and raw material supply disruptions. Six preventive actions were prioritized. The top two priorities, with nearly equal weights, were harvesting coconut sap at the optimal time (PA1) and periodic cleaning of the unopened coconut inflorescence (PA2). Mitigation efforts focused on upstream risks, and the findings are specific to the agroindustry under study.Keywords: Analytical Network Process, House of Risk, granulated palm sugar, SCOR 12.0, supply chain risk AbstrakKetidakstabilan pasokan nira dan gula cetak masih menjadi kendala utama produksi gula semut, terutama pada usaha kecil yang bergantung pada musim, hama, kapasitas pengrajin, dan kemampuan supplier. Prioritas sumber risiko dan tindakan mitigasi diperlukan agar sumber daya terbatas dapat diarahkan pada penyebab gangguan paling dominan serta tindakan yang paling layak diterapkan. Penelitian ini menggunakan studi kasus pada satu agroindustri gula semut dengan satu expert. SCOR 12.0 digunakan untuk memetakan aktivitas rantai pasok, House of Risk tahap 1 untuk menghitung Aggregate Risk Potential, Pareto untuk menyaring risk agents prioritas, dan Analytical Network Process untuk memeringkat preventive actions melalui kriteria efektivitas, kontribusi produktivitas, dan kemudahan implementasi. Hasil penelitian mengidentifikasi 14 aktivitas, 18 risk events, dan 19 risk agents. Empat risk agent prioritas menyumbang 77,63% dari total ARP, yaitu perubahan produktivitas gula cetak karena musim, kegagalan produksi karena hama, keterbatasan kapasitas supplier, dan gangguan pasokan bahan baku. Enam preventive actions diprioritaskan. PA1 berupa pemanenan nira pada waktu yang tepat dan PA2 berupa pembersihan manggar secara berkala menjadi dua prioritas utama dengan bobot hampir setara. Mitigasi diarahkan pada risiko hulu, sedangkan hasilnya spesifik untuk agroindustri yang diteliti.Kata kunci: Analytical Network Process, gula semut, House of Risk, risiko rantai pasok, SCOR 12.0 ]]>
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