Journal Informatic, Education and Management (JIEM)
Vol 8 No 2 (2026): AUGUST

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ASEAN-5 STOCK INDICES IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF GLOBAL VOLATILITY AND EXCHANGE RATE RISK DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY (2020–2025)

Rachel Jessica (Universitas Lampung)
Irma Febriana MK (Universitas Lampung)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 Aug 2026

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between global market volatility (VIX), currency exchange rates against the US Dollar, and stock market indices of ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) in the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020) versus the economic recovery period (2021–2025). Methodology: Using daily data and a separate Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach for each country. Econometric testing includes ADF stationarity, AIC lag determination, VAR stability, Granger causality, IRF, and FEVD. All stationary variables at the first difference, $I(1)$, confirm the specification of the VAR-in-Difference model.Findings: IRF analysis shows that the negative impact of VIX shocks on ASEAN-5 stock indices weakened significantly during the recovery, especially in the Philippines and Thailand, while Vietnam was the most resilient. Granger's causal relationship shifted from a two-way pattern during the pandemic to one-way during recovery, except in Indonesia which has just formed a two-way relationship between the VIX and JCI. The FEVD analysis confirms the increasing dominance of own-shock in the recovery period, except in Thailand where the THB/USD exchange rate dominates 95.62% of the SET index variation. Implications: The ASEAN-5 stock market is increasingly resilient to the spillover of post-pandemic external volatility. This condition reopens opportunities for portfolio diversification across countries due to the divergent market response again.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jiem

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Other

Description

Perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan terkait dengan teknologi, informasi dan komunikasi baik secara teoritis maupun empiris terbukti sudah memberikan dampak positif bagi berbagai sisi kehidupan masyarakat. Perkembangan ilmu Bidang Teknologi Informasi Dan Komunikasi sudah banyak memberikan manfaat bagi ...