PENGARUH EKSPOR KOMODITAS KARET, UTANG PEMERINTAH, DAN PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH TERHADAP TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN MODEL DINAMIS

Sindy Suhertika (Universitas Malikussaleh)
Murtala (Universitas Malikussaleh)
Ratna (Universitas Malikussaleh)
Cut Putri Mellita Sari (Universitas Malikussaleh)

Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal
Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal

This study was conducted in Indonesia, and aims to analyze the effect of rubber exports, government debt, and government spending on poverty rates in Indonesia. The data used in this study is 34 years of time series data from 1990-2023, obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the World Bank, and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The data was then analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of this study indicate that the rubber export variable in the short and long term has a negative and significant effect on poverty rates in Indonesia. The Government Debt variable in the short term has no effect on poverty rates in Indonesia, and in the long term has a negative and insignificant effect on poverty rates in Indonesia. The government spending variable in the short term has a positive and significant effect on poverty rates in Indonesia, and in the long term has a negative and insignificant effect on poverty rates in Indonesia. With this, the Indonesian government can pay attention to the quality of life of its people to reduce poverty.