Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI)
Vol. 15 No. 1 (2026)

Multi Coordinate Dekadal Rainfall Prediction in South Sumatera Using Long Short-Term Memory

Rheza Rijaya (Department of Informatics, Universitas Multi Data Palembang, Palembang, Indonesia)
Derry Alamsyah (Department of Informatics, Universitas Multi Data Palembang, Palembang, Indonesia)
Yohannes (Department of Informatics, Universitas Multi Data Palembang, Palembang, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Mar 2026

Abstract

An accurate rainfall prediction is essential to help mitigate natural disasters that may disrupt human activity. Diversity of the Indonesian climate makes it harder to predict rainfall with high accuracy, and this situation also occurs in South Sumatera. Therefore, this research aims to assess Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict dekadal rainfall at per-coordinate level, spanning 18 dekads ahead, and across 2821 gridded coordinates in South Sumatera. The model also uses climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Dipole Mode Index (DMI), NiƱo Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly) and wind streamline, together with South Sumatera dekadal rainfall to enhance the model predictive performance. The best performing model achieved by data that includes wind streamline at 925 millibars, with per-month performance of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) between 31.25 to 56.50 and rainfall level category accuracy between 53.26% to 78.47%. This indicates the LSTM model is able to predict dekadal rainfall on multiple coordinates throughout South Sumatera, although requiring significant improvement to be able to be incorporated to main weather prediction system.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

janapati

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Education Engineering

Description

Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI) is a collection of scientific articles in the field of Informatics / ICT Education widely and the field of Information Technology, published and managed by Jurusan Pendidikan Teknik Informatika, Fakultas Teknik dan Kejuruan, Universitas ...