Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025): Volume 14 Nomor 2 (September 2025)

Comparison Of Bayesian Spatial Car Models For Estimating The Risk Of Diarrhea Cases In Makassar City

Nurul Aulya Bakri (Universitas Negeri Makassar)
Wanda Yudi (Universitas Negeri Makassar)
Aswi Aswi (Universitas Negeri Makassar)
Rahmat Hidayat (Universitas Negeri Makassar)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Oct 2025

Abstract

Diarrhea continues to pose a significant public health challenge in Makassar City, with incidence varying across sub-districts. Mapping diarrhea risk is essential for public health planning, as it helps identify high-risk areas and allocate resources efficiently. Accurate spatial risk assessment supports targeted interventions and informs evidence-based health policies. This study aimed to identify areas with high and low relative risks (RR) of diarrhea cases using Bayesian spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models, specifically the Besag–York–Mollié (BYM) and Leroux approaches. The analysis was based on case data from 15 sub-districts in Makassar City in 2023. Model performance was assessed using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and the Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC). The CAR-Leroux model with an Inverse Gamma (IG) hyperprior (0.5; 0.0005) was identified as the best-fitting model, providing the most reliable estimation of relative risk. Kepulauan Sangkarrang exhibited the highest RR, indicating a markedly elevated risk of diarrhea relative to the city average, while Biringkanaya District showed the lowest RR, reflecting a substantially lower risk compared to the average.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

sainsmat

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Subject

Description

The objective of this journal is to publish original, fully peer-reviewed articles on a variety of topics and research methods in sciences, mathematics, statistics, education, and applied science. The journal welcomes articles that address common issues in mathematics, sciences, statistics, ...