Analisis Dampak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan melalui Indeks Pembangunan Manusia

Sayekti Suindyah Dwiningwarni (Universitas Dr. Soetomo)
Jajuk Suprijati (Universitas Dr. Soetomo)
Syamsiyah Yuli Dwi Andari (Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta)

EKONOMIS : Journal of Economics and Business
Vol 10, No 2 (2026): September

This study analyzes the effects of economic growth and the open unemployment rate on poverty through the human development index (HDI) in East Java Province from 2015 to 2024. Secondary data from Statistics Indonesia were examined using path analysis. Economic growth and unemployment have a positive but insignificant effect on both HDI and poverty, while HDI has a negative and significant effect on poverty. The indirect effect of growth through HDI is negative but weak, and the mediation path of unemployment is inconsistent with theory. Poverty reduction is therefore more closely associated with human capabilities than with aggregate growth. Policy should prioritize HDI improvements and more labor-absorbing growth.