<![CDATA[Aceh Province is currently on the brink of a structural fiscal crisis as the Special Autonomy Fund (Otsus) is set to expire in 2027. The threat of a chronic deficit in the Aceh Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBA) directly conflicts with the region’s high vulnerability to natural disasters and the urgent need to maintain a social safety net for its 5.63 million residents. Ironically, amid positive macroeconomic growth and a real-sector export surplus, Aceh’s own-source revenue (PAA) capacity has stagnated due to collection inefficiencies, tax regulatory relaxation, and the mismanagement of Aceh’s State-Owned Assets (BMA), which has left hundreds of high-value assets idle. Using a qualitative approach with a case study design, this policy paper examines these gaps through a TOWS matrix analysis and a policy evaluation using William Dunn’s method. The results of the mathematical analysis place Aceh’s revenue management in Quadrant IV (Weaknesses-Threats), which demands radical corrective action. This paper recommends implementing a Defensive-Aggressive (Turnaround) Strategy through repressive tax enforcement and a total restructuring of dividends from Regionally Owned Enterprises (BUMD). This emergency policy is absolutely necessary to capitalize on tax potential, whereby all revenue surpluses must be earmarked to fund Unforeseen Expenditures (BTT) for disaster relief in order to safeguard Aceh’s fiscal autonomy and the safety of its people.]]>
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