Whether fiscal decentralization has achieved its intended outcome is commonly judged through the lens of local fiscal autonomy, a construct that captures how far subnational governments can rely on revenue raised from within their own territories to fund the running of government and the pursuit of development. Regencies and cities in South Sumatra Province across 2020 to 2024 make up the setting for this study, which sets out to trace how tax effort, capital expenditure, and the General Allocation Fund (DAU) shape the fiscal autonomy these governments manage to attain. A quantitative design underpins the work, drawing on secondary figures pulled from Budget Implementation Reports (LRA) together with Regional Gross Domestic Product (PDRB) statistics. All 17 regencies and municipalities in the province were folded into the sample through a saturation approach, yielding 85 observations in total. Panel data regression run under the Random Effects Model (REM) in EViews 13 supplied the analytical backbone. Two of the three predictors tax effort and the General Allocation Fund turned out to carry a positive, statistically meaningful link with fiscal autonomy at the local level, whereas capital expenditure produced a negative coefficient that fell short of significance. Tested as a bloc, however, the trio of predictors was found to move local fiscal autonomy in a statistically significant way.
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