<![CDATA[Sap/Neera is a clear liquid that comes from coconut buds that haven’t bloomed yet. Karangasem Regency is one of the regencies in the Bali Province. Farmers in Karangasaem Regency use coconut plants to produce nira for making Balinese Arak. The purpose of this research was to determine the variables that affect the availability of nira-producing coconut trees which are used as raws for making arak and to see the potential availability of arak in Karangasem Regency. This study used a system approach method, namely system dynamic simulation. The research consists of several stages namely: identifying problems, constructing conceptual models, composing input-output diagrams, model formulation by developing Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) and transforming CLD into Stock Flow Diagrams (SFD), model validation and verification, model simulation, and create some scenarios. The simulation year used is 2011-2030. The results showed that 48 variables affected the availability of coconut trees. Based on the model simulation with current conditions, it is known that the potential for trees that produce nira is 452,432, but only 83,374 are managed by farmers. The amount of arak produced is 6,074,997 liters of the potential 28,952,141 liters that should have been produced. Model simulation with scenario-2 (optimistic) shows that in 2030 farmers will be able to manage 248.306 trees from a potential of 440,688 so that 17,510,331 liters of arak will be produced from a potential of 28,871,512 liters. This research potentially provides an overview for developing sustainable management of Balinese Arak, especially in Karangasem Regency.]]>
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