<![CDATA[Abstrak Perubahan geopolitik global tidak serta-merta menjadi persoalan pemolisian, tetapi dapat memperoleh relevansi keamanan ketika tekanan eksternal ditransmisikan melalui jalur ekonomi, politik, sosial, teknologi, dan informasi serta berinteraksi dengan kerentanan domestik. Penelitian ini menganalisis proses transmisi tersebut dalam keamanan metropolitan Jakarta dan mengembangkan kerangka konseptual Adaptive Geopolitical Policing bagi Polda Metro Jaya. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif berbasis analisis dokumen dengan Polda Metro Jaya sebagai konteks institusional, bukan sebagai objek evaluasi empiris. Bahan penelitian mencakup publikasi akademik, peraturan perundang-undangan, dokumen kebijakan dan institusional, serta sumber resmi yang dianalisis melalui identifikasi ancaman, penilaian transmisi, analisis kerentanan metropolitan, penilaian kapasitas institusional, dan sintesis konseptual. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa relevansi geopolitik terhadap pemolisian bergantung pada adanya transmisi domestik yang dapat diamati, interaksi dengan kerentanan metropolitan, potensi eskalasi yang kredibel, dan keterkaitannya dengan tanggung jawab keamanan publik. Kerangka yang dikembangkan menghubungkan strategic intelligence, transmission assessment, early warning, metropolitan risk assessment, collaborative prevention, proportionate operational response, serta evaluation and feedback dalam satu siklus adaptif. Legalitas, kebutuhan, proporsionalitas, transparansi, akuntabilitas, profesionalisme, dan perlindungan hak asasi manusia ditempatkan sebagai prinsip pengendali pada seluruh tahapan. Kerangka ini masih bersifat konseptual dan memerlukan validasi empiris sebelum dapat dipertimbangkan sebagai model operasional pemolisian. Kata Kunci: Adaptive Geopolitical Policing; Geopolitical Risk; Metropolitan Policing; Early Warning; Risk Assessment Abstract Global geopolitical change does not automatically constitute a policing concern, but it may acquire public-security relevance when external pressures are transmitted through economic, political, social, technological, and informational channels and interact with domestic vulnerabilities. This study examines that transmission process in metropolitan Jakarta and develops Adaptive Geopolitical Policing as a conceptual framework for Polda Metro Jaya. The research employs a qualitative document-based design, with Polda Metro Jaya treated as an institutional context rather than an object of empirical performance evaluation. The materials comprise scholarly publications, legal and policy documents, institutional reports, police-related materials, and official sources, analysed through threat identification, transmission assessment, metropolitan vulnerability analysis, institutional assessment, and conceptual synthesis. The findings indicate that geopolitical developments become relevant to metropolitan policing only when their domestic transmission is observable, interacts with existing metropolitan vulnerabilities, demonstrates credible escalation potential, and bears a sufficiently direct relationship to public-security responsibilities. The proposed framework links strategic intelligence, transmission assessment, early warning, metropolitan risk assessment, collaborative prevention, proportionate operational response, and evaluation and feedback within an adaptive analytical cycle. Legality, necessity, proportionality, transparency, accountability, professionalism, and human-rights protection operate as cross-cutting safeguards throughout the process. The framework remains conceptual and requires empirical validation before it can be regarded as an operational policing model. Keywords: Adaptive Geopolitical Policing; Geopolitical Risk; Metropolitan Policing; Early Warning; Risk Assessment]]>
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