Advances: Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis
Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): January - February

Dynamics of External Borrowing and Fiscal Vulnerability in Indonesia

Gema Merdeka Goeyardi (Universitas Narotama, Surabaya, Indonesia)
Agus Sukoco (Universitas Narotama, Surabaya, Indonesia)
Arasy Alimudin (Universitas Narotama, Surabaya, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Feb 2026

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines shifts in Indonesia’s external borrowing during 2021–2025 and the macro-fiscal and governance channels through which debt composition may create fiscal vulnerability. Research Method: A descriptive qualitative secondary-data design combines year-end external-debt statistics from Bank Indonesia with a focused review of scholarly and institutional sources. Analysis covers debt composition, the external-debt-to-GDP ratio, exchange-rate exposure, refinancing pressure, fiscal space, domestic revenue capacity, and debt governance. Results and Discussion: Total external debt declined in 2022 and then increased to USD 431.7 billion in 2025. From 2021 to 2025, public-sector external debt rose from USD 209.2 billion to USD 238.9 billion, while private-sector external debt fell from USD 205.9 billion to USD 192.8 billion. The external-debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 35.0% to 29.9%. Fiscal vulnerability operates principally through currency exposure, debt-service and refinancing pressure, constrained fiscal space, and governance quality. Implications: The study relies on secondary evidence and does not estimate causal effects. Policy implications emphasize prudent borrowing, productive allocation, currency-risk management, domestic revenue capacity, and transparent debt governance. Originality: The study integrates debt composition, macro-fiscal exposure, governance, and fiscal resilience in a qualitative assessment of Indonesia’s recent external-borrowing dynamics.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

AJEB

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Established in 2023, Advances: Journal of Economics & Business is dedicated to publishing original research that contributes to the advancement of knowledge in the fields of economics, management, and accounting. This esteemed journal encompasses a wide range of research topics and employs various ...