Characteristics of Precipitable Water Vapor of Mesoscale Convective System During Heavy Rainfall over Greater Jakarta, Indonesia, March 3-4 2025

Prasetyo Umar Firdianto (Geospatial Laboratory, Department of Geomatics Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, ITS Campus Sukolilo, Surabaya, Jawa Timur Meteorological Station of Tanjung Perak, Indonesia Agency of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)
Bagus Satrio Wicaksono (Geospatial Laboratory, Department of Geomatics Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, ITS Campus Sukolilo, Surabaya, Jawa Timur)
Asep Adang Supriyadi (Department of Sensing Technology, Republic of Indonesia Defence University, Area of Indonesia Peace and Security Centre (IPSC) Sentul, Bogor, Jawa Barat)
Nanang Yulian (Department of Defence Science, Republic of Indonesia Defence University, Area of Indonesia Peace and Security Centre (IPSC) Sentul, Bogor, Jawa Barat)
Bangun Muljo Sukojo (Geospatial Laboratory, Department of Geomatics Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, ITS Campus Sukolilo, Surabaya, Jawa Timur)
Danang Eko Nuryanto (Indonesia Agency of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Angkasa I No. 2, Kemayoran, Jakarta Pusat)

Forum Geografi
Vol. 40 No. 1 (2026): April 2026

Across the Indonesian Maritime Continent, pronounced convective activity frequently initiates cloud systems that can further organize and evolve into mesoscale convective system (MCS). This triggers extreme weather and flash flooding; for example, on March 3-4, 2025 in Greater Jakarta. This study investigates the impact of such systems on precipitable water vapor (PWV) using GNSS observations, the ERA5 reanalysis model, and Himawari satellite data. The datasets include rainfall observations, GNSS RINEX data, ERA5 reanalysis, GPM satellite precipitation, and brightness temperature from Himawari-8 channel 8. Analysis was conducted on variability, timeseries, scatter , boxplots, bias, MAE, RMSE standard deviation, correlation, and coefficients of determination. The results indicate that PWV exhibits marked fluctuations that align with the MCS period. The distance of observation and MCS track have a significant influence on modulating PWV, whereas PWV has a weak correlation with MCS intensity. Consistent fluctuations were detected in both the GNSS and ERA5 derived PWV, although GNSS demonstrated higher sensitivity in describing PWV fluctuation compared to ERA5. Variation in brightness in the upper-level moisture demonstrate consistent with PWV, athough the correlation remains weak. MCSs to enhanced rainfall, which can trigger extreme weather conditions and flash flooding.