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Asep Adang Supriyadi
Department of Sensing Technology, Republic of Indonesia Defence University, Area of Indonesia Peace and Security Centre (IPSC) Sentul, Bogor, Jawa Barat
Earth & Planetary Sciences

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Characteristics of Precipitable Water Vapor of Mesoscale Convective System During Heavy Rainfall over Greater Jakarta, Indonesia, March 3-4 2025 Prasetyo Umar Firdianto; Bagus Satrio Wicaksono; Asep Adang Supriyadi; Nanang Yulian; Bangun Muljo Sukojo; Danang Eko Nuryanto
Forum Geografi Vol. 40 No. 1 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/forgeo.13886

Abstract

Across the Indonesian Maritime Continent, pronounced convective activity frequently initiates cloud systems that can further organize and evolve into mesoscale convective system (MCS). This triggers extreme weather and flash flooding; for example, on March 3-4, 2025 in Greater Jakarta. This study investigates the impact of such systems on precipitable water vapor (PWV) using GNSS observations, the ERA5 reanalysis model, and Himawari satellite data. The datasets include rainfall observations, GNSS RINEX data, ERA5 reanalysis, GPM satellite precipitation, and brightness temperature from Himawari-8 channel 8. Analysis was conducted on variability, timeseries, scatter , boxplots, bias, MAE, RMSE standard deviation, correlation, and coefficients of determination. The results indicate that PWV exhibits marked fluctuations that align with the MCS period. The distance of observation and MCS track have a significant influence on modulating PWV, whereas PWV has a weak correlation with MCS intensity. Consistent fluctuations were detected in both the GNSS and ERA5 derived PWV, although GNSS demonstrated higher sensitivity in describing PWV fluctuation compared to ERA5. Variation in brightness in the upper-level moisture demonstrate consistent with PWV, athough the correlation remains weak. MCSs to enhanced rainfall, which can trigger extreme weather conditions and flash flooding.
Co-Authors Bagus Satrio Wicaksono Bangun Muljo Sukojo Danang Eko Nuryanto Nanang Yulian Prasetyo Umar Firdianto