Regress: Journal of Economics & Management
Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026)

Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Jumlah Uang Beredar dengan Pendekatan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Lili Purnama (Sekolah Tinggi Agama Islam Negeri Mandailing Natal)
Nurfitriana Nurfitriana (Institut Agama Islam Negeri Bone)
Mubasysyyratul Ummah Sapsuha (Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Kalijaga)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Oct 2026

Abstract

Monetary stability depends in part on how changes in the money supply interact with inflation, interest rates, and exchange-rate movements. This study investigates whether inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates are associated with changes in Indonesia’s money supply, and whether these relationships differ between the short and long run. It uses secondary time-series data obtained from Bank Indonesia for January 2020 to June 2026. The data are analysed in EViews 9 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), alongside impulse response function and variance decomposition analyses to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. The results show that inflation has a positive and statistically significant relationship with the money supply in both the short and long run. Interest rates and exchange rates also display positive relationships, but neither is statistically significant individually. Considered simultaneously, however, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates are reported to affect the money supply jointly. These findings identify inflation as the only individually significant variable in the model, while indicating that the three macroeconomic variables, taken together, are relevant to explaining money-supply dynamics. The study thus underscores the importance of examining both individual relationships and their combined effects when analysing monetary conditions.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

REG

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Description

Regress: Journal of Economics & Management is a peer-reviewed journal published by the Medan Resource Center. The journal aims to advance theoretical and practical knowledge by promoting high-quality research and providing a platform for researchers, academicians, and practitioners to share their ...