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All Journal Regress: Journal of Economics & Management
Mubasysyyratul Ummah Sapsuha
Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Kalijaga
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Jumlah Uang Beredar dengan Pendekatan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Lili Purnama; Nurfitriana Nurfitriana; Mubasysyyratul Ummah Sapsuha
Regress: Journal of Economics & Management Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Medan Resource Center

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57251/reg.v6i2.2274

Abstract

Monetary stability depends in part on how changes in the money supply interact with inflation, interest rates, and exchange-rate movements. This study investigates whether inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates are associated with changes in Indonesia’s money supply, and whether these relationships differ between the short and long run. It uses secondary time-series data obtained from Bank Indonesia for January 2020 to June 2026. The data are analysed in EViews 9 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), alongside impulse response function and variance decomposition analyses to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. The results show that inflation has a positive and statistically significant relationship with the money supply in both the short and long run. Interest rates and exchange rates also display positive relationships, but neither is statistically significant individually. Considered simultaneously, however, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates are reported to affect the money supply jointly. These findings identify inflation as the only individually significant variable in the model, while indicating that the three macroeconomic variables, taken together, are relevant to explaining money-supply dynamics. The study thus underscores the importance of examining both individual relationships and their combined effects when analysing monetary conditions.
Co-Authors Lili Purnama Nurfitriana Nurfitriana