<![CDATA[Statistical thinking is an essential 21st-century competency; however, statistics instruction in elementary schools remains largely procedural. This study integrates learning obstacles, statistical thinking levels, and Hypothetical Learning Trajectory (HLT) within a unified analytical framework. It aims to identify students’ learning obstacles and statistical thinking levels in learning measures of central tendency as an empirical basis for HLT design. A qualitative case study was conducted with 16 sixth-grade students and one teacher at SDN 1 Waringinsari in June 2026. Data were collected through diagnostic tests, participatory observation, and semi-structured interviews and analyzed using NVivo 14 through open, axial, and selective coding. The findings indicate that epistemological obstacles predominate, followed by ontogenical and didactical obstacles. Students’ statistical thinking levels are concentrated at transitional and quantitative levels, while the analytical level is rarely achieved. Epistemological obstacles persist across transitional and quantitative levels. The study contributes a systematic mapping of learning obstacles and statistical thinking levels to inform evidence-based HLT design.]]>
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