<![CDATA[Annual hydrometeorological disasters in North Aceh Regency consistently erode agricultural sector productivity and hinder improvements in the Human Development Index (HDI). Ironically, the architecture of the Regency Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBK) in the draft 2026 PPAS remains trapped in a reactive-curative emergency response paradigm. This qualitative case study aims to comprehensively analyze the budget structure using SWOT analysis, William Dunn’s evaluation criteria, and the involvement of 50 local planning officials as key respondents. Quantitative results indicate that the region is trapped in Quadrant IV (Defensive) with an IFE score of 2.10 and an EFE score of 1.90, demonstrating the fragility of local fiscal resilience in the face of climate shocks. Therefore, this policy paper recommends the issuance of a Regent’s Regulation regarding the institutionalization of Risk-Based Budgeting through an earmarking scheme allocating at least 10% of the pure discretionary budget for the development of pre-disaster mitigation infrastructure in the upper reaches of rivers. This radical shift from downstream to upstream is a crucial, human-centered step aimed at freeing rural communities from the “loss and damage trap” while ensuring the achievement of the macro targets of the 2025–2029 Regional Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMD). Keywords: Risk-Based Budgeting, Hydrometeorological Disasters, Fiscal Resilience, North Aceh, Policy Paper.]]>
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