<![CDATA[Tourism dependence is often assumed to magnify pandemic losses, but it is uncertain whether it predicts the percentage collapse in tourism receipts or the importance of lost tourism receipts within pre-pandemic exports. Using World Development Indicators for 125 countries and economies, this study distinguishes the proportional decline in international tourism receipts from the same loss normalized by pre-pandemic exports. Cross-sectional regression models use 2019 dependence, baseline receipts and prior revenue growth, with heteroskedasticity-robust inference and pre-period sensitivity checks. Average tourism-receipts losses in 2020 reached 63.8%. Dependence was not a statistically reliable predictor of proportional losses in the preferred model (β = 0.079, SE = 0.066, p = .227), a result robust to alternative measures and sample restrictions. In contrast, median foregone tourism receipts were equivalent to 1.98% of 2019 exports in the lowest-dependence quartile and 31.06% in the highest, an accounting difference, not a causal effect. The study advances tourism-vulnerability measurement by separating sector-specific shock severity from structural export exposure and identifies the limits of treating tourism reliance as a direct predictor of relative shock intensity.]]>
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