ARIMA Modeling for Forecasting Indonesia’s Per Capita CO2 Emissions and Literature Study of Photobioreactor-Based Mitigation

Henny Syahrani (Politeknik Statistika STIS)
Fadli Ardiansyah (Politeknik Statistika STIS)
Nabila Nur Faiza (Politeknik Statistika STIS)
Samuel Kevin (Politeknik Statistika STIS)
Neli Agustina (Politeknik Statistika STIS)

VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research
Vol. 8 No. 02 (2026)

Increasing CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, industrial activities, and transportation drives climate change. Although Indonesia has committed to reducing emissions by 29% unconditionally and up to 43% with international support by 2030 through its Nationally Determined Contribution, per capita emissions rise. This study forecasts Indonesia’s per capita CO2 emissions using ARIMA based on data from 1950-2024 from Our World in Data. Data from 1950-2009 served as training and 2010-2024 as testing. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicated non-stationarity at level and stationarity after first differencing. ARIMA(0,1,10) was selected based on the lowest AIC and SC, highest adjusted R², and satisfactory diagnostics. MAPE was 13.19%. Forecasts for 2025-2030 show emissions increasing from 2.95 to 3.75 tons per capita. The study evaluates IMC-PBR, which removes atmospheric through photosynthesis while generating biomass.