Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research
Henny Syahrani
Politeknik Statistika STIS
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

 1 
ARIMA Modeling for Forecasting Indonesia’s Per Capita CO2 Emissions and Literature Study of Photobioreactor-Based Mitigation Henny Syahrani; Fadli Ardiansyah; Nabila Nur Faiza; Samuel Kevin; Neli Agustina
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 8 No. 02 (2026)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm650

Abstract

Increasing CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, industrial activities, and transportation drives climate change. Although Indonesia has committed to reducing emissions by 29% unconditionally and up to 43% with international support by 2030 through its Nationally Determined Contribution, per capita emissions rise. This study forecasts Indonesia’s per capita CO2 emissions using ARIMA based on data from 1950-2024 from Our World in Data. Data from 1950-2009 served as training and 2010-2024 as testing. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicated non-stationarity at level and stationarity after first differencing. ARIMA(0,1,10) was selected based on the lowest AIC and SC, highest adjusted R², and satisfactory diagnostics. MAPE was 13.19%. Forecasts for 2025-2030 show emissions increasing from 2.95 to 3.75 tons per capita. The study evaluates IMC-PBR, which removes atmospheric through photosynthesis while generating biomass.
Co-Authors Fadli Ardiansyah Nabila Nur Faiza Neli Agustina Samuel Kevin